Texas college graduates from majors exposed to automation were 1.7 percentage points less likely to find work within a year of graduating after ChatGPT’s release, and those who found it earned about 5 percent less, according to the Dallas Fed. Separately, an NBER working paper by Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu finds that unemployment among recent graduates nationwide did not spike in summer 2026. The two studies measure different outcomes over different periods.
By the Numbers
1.7 percentage points: lower probability of finding work in Texas within a year of graduating for graduates of automation-exposed majors (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
About 5%: earnings gap between exposed-major and less-exposed-major graduates, 2021 to 2024 (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
4.8%: drop in undergraduate enrollment in AI-exposed majors at Texas institutions, fall 2024 to fall 2025 (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
Nearly 2 percentage points: what counting people who want a job adds to the unemployment rate, with no statistically significant rise among recent graduates in summer 2026 under either definition (National Bureau of Economic Research)
Reskilling and Education
Dallas Fed: graduates of AI-exposed majors find fewer jobs and earn less
Samuel Dodini and Tucker Smith compared Texas graduates from majors vulnerable to automation with graduates of less-exposed majors after ChatGPT’s 2022 release. The exposed group had a 1.7-percentage-point lower probability of finding employment in Texas within a year of graduating. Graduates of exposed majors who found jobs earned about 5 percent less than their counterparts between 2021 and 2024. Graduate school enrollment rose 1.4 percentage points in the exposed group, and most of those students stayed in their original field. A master’s degree did little to help: new entrants with master’s degrees in more-exposed fields saw earnings fall by a similar relative amount as four-year graduates. Students have responded. Undergraduate enrollment in exposed majors at Texas institutions fell 4.8 percent between fall 2024 and fall 2025.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Samuel Dodini and Tucker Smith, September 22, 2026 (12 days old). Read the research note
Why it matters: Graduates of exposed majors get jobs at lower rates and lower pay, and a master’s degree did not restore the pay. Campus recruiting programs aimed at these graduates should be judged on placement and starting salary, since the unemployment rate records neither.
NBER: no spike in recent-graduate unemployment in summer 2026
Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu analyzed Current Population Survey data for June, July, and August 2026. Unemployment among recent college graduates did not rise relative to earlier summers, to older graduates, or to young workers without degrees. Using difference-in-differences and event-study models, they also found no statistically significant increase when the definition of unemployment widened to include people who say they want a job, a change that adds nearly two percentage points to the rate. In their occupation-level analysis, they found some evidence of a positive relationship between remote-work availability and 2026 unemployment among graduates in AI-exposed fields.
National Bureau of Economic Research, Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu, Working Paper 35796, September 2026 (about 6 days old). Read the paper
Why it matters: Unemployment measures one kind of early-career damage, and the Dallas Fed’s pay and placement figures sit outside it. HR leaders planning 2027 campus hiring should track offer pay and time to first job by major alongside the unemployment rate.
What Workforce Leaders Are Watching
Does your entry-level offer data show a pay gap between graduates of AI-exposed majors and everyone else, and who reviews it before the next campus cycle?
Texas placement and pay lagged while national summer unemployment held. Which of those two measures drives your early-career hiring plan, and who owns that choice?
Undergraduate enrollment in exposed majors fell 4.8% in Texas in one year. Which of the programs that feed your 2029 hiring pipeline are shrinking?
Master’s degrees in exposed fields brought similar pay declines to bachelor’s degrees. Does your pay structure still charge a premium for them?
This briefing was prepared automatically by the Workforce Rewired research assistant. All stories include direct source links.