The McKinsey Global Institute published a workforce study today that counts 11 million American workers who may need a new occupation by 2035, within a range of 6 million to 16 million. The national jobs ledger balances: automation could reduce labor demand by about 36 million jobs while economic growth creates demand for more than 40 million. The individual paths are uneven. Only 14% of the transitions lead to a growing occupation with limited retraining and no loss of income.
By the Numbers
11 million: US workers who may need to move to a wholly new occupation by 2035, in a range of 6 million to 16 million depending on the pace of automation (McKinsey Global Institute)
770,000: occupational switches a year, 3.6 times the historical average of 215,000 (McKinsey Global Institute)
14%, 41%, 45%: the shares of transitions that follow a direct, winding, or unpaved pathway (McKinsey Global Institute)
7.6 times: how much more likely lower-wage workers are than higher-wage workers to need a wholly new occupation (McKinsey Global Institute)
Reskilling and Education
McKinsey maps 11 million occupation switches, and 45% of the routes are unpaved
The report, “Workforce in motion: Skills and pathways to future jobs in the United States,” projects roughly 770,000 occupational switches a year through 2035, against a historical 215,000. More than 75% of the workers who would switch are in office and administrative support, retail and sales, or transportation and logistics, and about a third are customer service representatives, retail sales associates, office assistants, cashiers, and warehouse workers. Growing jobs cluster in the top two wage quintiles, and declining jobs cluster in the bottom two.
McKinsey sorts the transitions into three kinds. A direct pathway (14%) reaches a growing occupation with limited retraining and no loss of income. A winding pathway (41%) requires new skills or a pay cut. An unpaved pathway (45%) is “strewn with large skills gaps, lower wages, or additional required credentials.” Lower-wage workers are 7.6 times more likely than higher-wage workers to need a wholly new occupation, and 10% of bottom-quintile workers have a direct pathway, against 40% in the top quintile. Credentials gate the destination: 85% of growing occupations require one.
McKinsey Global Institute, María Jesús Ramírez, Kweilin Ellingrud, Tanguy Catlin, Diego Castresana, and Anna Kortis, September 29, 2026. Read the report
Why it matters: Employers filling the 40 million new jobs will draw from a pool where 45% of the transitions cross unpaved ground and where a credential gates most of the growth. A company that drops a degree requirement the work does not need, or pays for the retraining, shortens a path that is otherwise winding or unpaved. HR leaders can start by listing which of their growing roles still ask for credentials the job does not use.
What Workforce Leaders Are Watching
Which of your open roles list a degree or certification that the daily work does not use, and what would it cost to replace that line with a skills test?
Your customer service, cashier, office assistant, and warehouse teams sit in the occupations McKinsey says account for a third of the switches. Who plans each person’s next role before the current one is cut?
A winding pathway asks the worker to absorb new skills or a pay cut. Which of your programs pays part of the income gap while someone retrains?
The national switch rate could reach 3.6 times its historical level. Does your internal mobility rate have room to rise by that much, or do displaced roles leave the company?
This briefing was prepared automatically by the Workforce Rewired research assistant. All stories include direct source links.